海洋气象学：15气候变化.pptVIP

Global warming or Climate Change? Working Group I Contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (AR5) Summary for Policymakers(Sep,2013) 气候变化的变化、适应和脆弱性 气候变化的定义 科学定义：气候平均状态和距平两者中的一个或者一起出现了统计意义上显著的变化 政府间气候委员会（IPCC）：自然+人类活动的结果 联合国气候变化框架公约（UNFCCC）：人类活动 先前的气候 新气候 新气候 先前的气候 平均 平均 冷 冷 热 热 均值增加 方差增加 1.均值增加，偏热天气的概率增加，以前不出现的极热天气也可出现，偏冷天气大大减少 2. 距平增加，会造成更多的偏冷偏热天气，出现极冷和极热天气 Anomalies are relative to the mean of 1961?1990 Virtually all scientists agree that the Earth has warmed a small amount since the year 1000 or, if you choose, since 1850, when instrumented temperature records became reasonably accurate and distributed in key areas of the world.? The globally averaged combined land and ocean surface temperature data as calculated by a linear trend, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C , over the period 1880–2012, when multiple independently produced datasets exist. The total increase between the average of the 1850–1900 period and the 2003–2012 period is 0.78 [0.72 to 0.85] °C, based on the single longest dataset available. ? For the longest period when calculation of regional trends is sufficiently complete (1901–2012), almost the entire globe has experienced surface warming. In addition to robust multi-decadal warming, global mean surface temperature exhibits substantial decadal and interannual variability. Due to natural variability, trends based on short records are very sensitive to the beginning and end dates and do not in general reflect long-term climate trends. As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Ni?o, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade) 2013年夏天，北极圈将完全无冰 ？（来自计算机模型的预测显示，海冰将持续融化下去，但何时会完全无冰，科学家从未达成共识。通常的预测结果是在2040到2100年间。2013是最激进的推测）/arcticseaicenews/ As sea ice extent declined over the past years, Arctic tundra (冻土层，冰原，苔原