lsr十二月全球投资机会：明年h1中国反弹部分抵消西方疲弱_大宗商品强于股市20121218.pdfVIP

Global Investment Opportunities December 2012 Western risks, eastern promise A weak H1 2013 is likely in the west, partly offset by China’s rebound • We still expect the US fiscal cliff debate to end with a 2%+ fiscal tightening for 2013 • Translates into an extra 0.5% hit to GDP for Euro Area already mired in recession • Equities are still addicted to liquidity, but QE’s returns are diminishing Key Investment themes and recommendations ww Multi-Asset US investment grade corporate bonds still preferred to equities (adjusted for volatility) • High yield vulnerable if US goes over the cliff • Commodities underperformed equities in 2012 but a reversal is possible in Q1, thanks to the cliff and bounce in Chinese growth Fixed Income In credit, longer duration should be preferred to lower quality • Core government debt looks increasingly unattractive; we still favour high grade corporate bonds over sovereigns • Pay fixed on ZAR 1y swaps as central bank easing looks done, inflation still too high Currencies Re-orienting portfolio for weaker oil prices • Bullish USD/CAD option strategy • Short AUD/NOK replaces short AUD/CAD and short GBP/NOK • Long BRL/ZAR and long EUR/CZK are other new recommendations • Retaining bullish KRW/JPY option strategy Equities Bias for EM over DM reflected in: long Brazil / short MSCI World; long FTSE China A50 futures / short CAC DAX • Macro models still suggest greatest downside risk in EA • US small caps have outperformed alongside falling implied correlation; Q1 should be tougher Commodities In line with our October call for several months of improving Chinese growth sentiment, we maintain a long Rubber (TOCOM April futures) recommendation introduce long Cotton (March) • Corn backwardation to narrow, front end Wheat to regain ground versus Corn