航空的未来场景.docxVIP

Table of Content Summary 5 About this study 8 Setting the scene 11 Scenarios Scenario 1: Mad Max 25 Scenario 2: Tech for You 33 Scenario 3: Stripping Down 41 Scenario 4: Optimising Together 47 The Future of Aviation for EREA 55 Moving forward towards a technological strategy for RD 61 EREA, its mission, goal and strategy 63 Colophon 67 Summary The “EREA Vision Study – The Future of Aviation in 2050” is the update of the previously released “EREA vision for the future –Towards the future generation of Air Transport System” published in 2010. This new study, describing EREA’s own vision, has as objec- tives: (i) to share EREA’s vision with external stakeholders to help enhance cooperation; (ii) to form the basis for EREA to support policy makers at national and European level; (iii) to motivate EREA and its members to work together to common and ambitious goals; and (iv) to engage with the general public, particularly on societal needs and sustainability for the aviation sector. The outcome of the study is presented in two parts: a first document, which describes the current societal and aviation context and imagines four alternative future sce- narios for 2050, exploring how aviation could contribute in each scenario; a second document, which provides the technical over- view of the research and development (RD) activities needed to realise EREA’s vision for the Future of Aviation. In the first document, four future, alternative scenarios are presented, built in a series of workshops by a range of EREA experts in the spring of 2020. Although the four scenarios are all different, they result in common themes about the future of the air transport system: The integration of aviation into a broader, comprehen- sive, transport system. Transportation itself and all ancil- lary activities will be integrated, resulting in an intercon- nected, multi-mod