2021年新冠疫情后房地产从滞后到领先复苏.docxVIP

Viewpoint REAL ESTATE 2021 FROM PANDEMIC LAGGARD TO RECOVERY LEADER A POST PANDEMIC ROADMAP FOR THE GCC Authors: Souheil Moukaddem Bruno Wehbe Joseph Mazloum C Contributors: Joseph Dib Senior Consultant INTRODUCTION The COVID-19 pandemic brought about a seismic, once-in-a-lifetime shift to the real estate industry for owners, investors, landlords, tenants, and consumers alike. While many lessons from the 2008 financial crisis have been learned and applied, the challenges of the current crisis dwarf those of its predecessor, both in extent and in depth. The pandemic continues to upend nearly every facet of modern life: how we work and communicate, where we can shop, dine, and travel, and what we do to educate our children, congregate with loved ones, keep ourselves healthy, and celebrate small moments. Yet positive advances in vaccine development and roll-out present a much-needed reason for hope. The next normal is almost here. Now that the dust is settling, should hotels, shopping malls, offices, cinemas, and parks be written-off or hasten their evolution? 2 Booz Allen Hamilton proprietary informationBo 2 Booz Allen Hamilton proprietary information THE LOSERS OF YESTERDAY, THE WINNERS OF TOMORROW  Stock Performance of Key Regional Real Estate Players 1 Year - February 04 2020 – February 04, 2021 On November 09, 2020, Pfizer and BioNtech were first to announce a 90%+ efficacy rate for their jointly developed vaccine candidate in Phase III trials After suffering severe losses during the better part of 2020, real estate players-- particularly those in sectors that rely heavily on human densification, social interaction, and travel—saw promising news of vaccine effectiveness start to reverse this trend-- in just one day (November 9, 20201), with underperforming sectors leading the resurgence. While this recovery trend might fluctuate as this paper is being written and for the better part of 2021, it is clear that a solid foundation exists for