新冠疫情与旅游业.docxVIP

COVID-19 AND TOURISMAN UPDATEUNITED NA TIONS CONFERENCE ON TRAD COVID-19 AND TOURISM AN UPDATE EMBARGO EMBARGO The contents of this report must not be quoted or summarized in the print, broadcast or electronic media before 30 June 2021, 5:00 a.m. GMT, (1 a.m. New York, 7:00 a.m. Geneva, 10:30 a.m. Delhi, 2 p.m. Tokyo) Assessing the economic consequences 2021, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its officials or Member States. The designations employed and the presentation of material on any map in this work do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This document has not been formally edited. COVID-19 AND TOURISM – AN UPDA COVID-19 AND TOURISM – AN UPDATE 2 Abstract Tourism is one of the sectors most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Indeed, the number of international tourist arrivals declined by 84 per cent between March and December 2020 compared with the previous year, according to data observed by UNWTO. Based on a range of tourist arrivals’ projections, the report quantifies the potential economic effects of the contraction in tourism in 2021. The indirect effects are significant. Due to linkages with upstream sectors such as agriculture, a drop in tourist sales leads to a 2.5-fold loss in real GDP, on average, in the absence of any stimulus measures. Based on three scenarios, one optimistic, one pessimistic and one where the asymmetric speed of vaccinations is considered, the economic losses could range between $1.7 trillion and $2.4 trillion in 2021. The results highlight the importance of the vaccine rollout in getting global tourism restarted and other mitigating measures. 3 TABLE O