决策陷阱已改.pptxVIP

Decision Theory and Methods;;1. 决策是普遍存在的 The pervasiveness of decision making 2. 理性决策程序模式 The Rational decision making process 3. 情绪的影响：决策陷阱的实例 The Emotional effect 4. 如何做一个成功的决策者;(一) 个人 1. 考研 vs. 工作 2. Buying Decision 3. Consumer Behavior ;一生能有几次选择？举例说明你最差劲的一次决策。;(二) 公司 1. 营销：秦池 2. 生产：冠生圆 3. 控制：三株;1. 确定问题 5. 分析备选方案 2. 辨识决策准则 6. 选择一个决策方案 3. 分配权重给准则 7. 执行决策方案 4. 发展备选方案　　　 　 8. 评估决策效能 讨论： 1. 见识谋断，Intelligent, Design, Choice activity 2. 那一步最难？以买电脑为例。;Problem Identification;Decision Criteria and Weights;Assessment of Car Alternatives;1. 问题的类型：结构良好，若结构不佳？ 2. 理性的限制：若非完全理性？;Structured Problems Involve goals that clear. Are familiar (have occurred before). Are easily and completely defined—information about the problem is available and complete. Programmed Decision A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach. e.g. Policy, Procedure, Rules. ;Unstructured Problems Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Problems that will require custom-made solutions. Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions that are unique and nonrecurring. Decisions that generate unique responses.;Programmed Decisions;决策者最常犯的错误：问错问题！;Assumptions of Rationality;The Paradox of Choice;Bounded Rationality;The Role of Intuition;What is Intuition?;Guidelines for making effective decisions;Habits of highly reliable organizations (HROs); 3. 情绪的影响：决策陷阱的实例? ? The Emotional effect;Common Decision Traps;Common Decision Traps;Common Decision Traps;Common Decision Traps;Common Decision Traps;某地爆发传染病，预测死600人;Kahneman (2002 Nobel Prize) :  决策框架（decision frame);Kahneman (2002 Nobel Prize) :  Prospect Theory (展望理论);决策准则;旧书店买音乐辞典你愿为这两本辞典各出价多少？;营销高手的示范;奚氏相亲六原则;营销高手的启示;聪明的顾客如何脱困？;3.2 金钱???户 vs. 心理账户;情境一 你早已决定去观赏，在几天前就已经买了票。准备出门时，却发现票不小心弄丢了。 □ 买 □ 不买;花光家教费？;去博弈？;选择有效的财政政策;跟司机学管理;孝子难为;金钱账户 vs. 心理账户;给大有为政府的启示;3.3 送礼的艺术;婚礼包红包？;2021/3