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A Framework for Credit Analysis
I. Risk Assessment
II. The Client’s Funding Needs
III. Loan Structuring
IV. Loan Management
1
Credit Analysis
I. Risk Assessment
Monitoring the Economic Environment
Analyzing Industry Conditions
Assessing a Client’s Marketing Management
Appraising the Client’s Operations Management
Evaluating Management Capabilities and Character
Analyzing the Borrower’s Financial Management
2
Credit Analysis
Monitoring the Economic Environment
Much of the risk associated with a loan is due to broad economic forces as shown on the next slide
Lender must manage its exposure to certain types of businesses
Lender may have to curtail lending, even to businesses with a good track record, in periods of economic adversity
Necessary to monitor the current and forecasted economic environment
3
Credit Analysis
The Economic Environment - Cont.
Key elements of the economy
Economic growth - the business cycle
Inflation rates
Interest rates - the level, term structure and risk structure
Government - political trends and current fiscal and monetary policies
International relationships - balance of payments, currency value, international markets
4
Credit Analysis
The Economic Environment - Cont.
It is important for the lending officer to keep on top of broad economic conditions because of their potential impact on the bank’s clients and the quality of the officer’s loan portfolio
5
Credit Analysis
Analyzing Industry Conditions
A borrower’s financial performance depends on:
Current conditions and prospects for its industry
How well the company is positioned relative to the competition?
It is necessary to understand both the risks and opportunities for the major industry sectors in the bank’s market
Determine two factors:
Are the industry’s prospects attractive?
Which types of firms are most likely to succeed in the industry?
6
Credit Analysis
Analyzing Industry Conditions
Banks now create portfolio management groups
Monitor industry concentrations in the bank’s l
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