资金流与金融风险管理.ppt

International Finance:Managing Capital Flows and Financial Risks Joint CCER-World Bank Institute course July 16-20, Beijing, China Capital Flow Volatility and Financial Risks:Overview Dr. Yan Wang, Senior Economist Managing Capital Flows and Financial Risks, a CCER-WBI joint course July 16-20, Beijing, China Capital Flow Volatility Financial Risks I. Rise and Fall of Capital Flows Capital flow volatility Implicit government guarantees market failures Volatility hurts growth and hurts the poor most II. New issues in managing risks Fiscal risks and gov’t contingent liabilities Derivatives and risks “Value at Risk” Early warning indicators Short term flows and crises III. Policy options to manage financial risks A spectrum of capital flow interventions Chile: reserve requirements for short term inflows: pros and cons Sound banking system and regulations: currency risk exposure and etc. Competition and corporate governance crucial for market discipline Summary Global Integration and Capital Flow Volatility The rise and fall of international capital flows:capital market flows are volatile Source: GDF 2000. Capital Flow Volatility: FDI is More Stable Source: GDF, 1999 Large reversals in net private capital flows Capital Flow Volatility is linked with Volatile Growth Relationship between economic growth variability and volatility in private foreign capital flows Source: Thomas et al “The Quality of Growth,” 2000. 1970-79 1980-84 1985-89 1990-96 0 10 20 30 40 50 Number of episodes Systemic crises Smaller crises Capital Flow Volatility is linked with Frequency in Systemic Banking Crises Frequent Banking Crisis Banking Crises and aftermath are extremely costly for the real economy: unfair burden for the poor High Cost of Banking Crises Growth Volatility hurts the poor most Source: Thomas et al “The Quality of Growth”, 2000. Financial Deepening in the Domestic Economy can facilitate Economic Growth, however... Source:Thomas et al “The Qua