奥斯陆和平研究所-战略研究基金会-东地中海的团结与威慑（英）-2021.6 .docxVIP

Solidarity and deterrence in the Eastern Mediterranean Solidarity and deterrence in the Eastern Mediterranean An analysis of the delicate question of collective defence between EU member states vis-à-vis Turkey Recherches Documents N°13/2021 Elie Perot Brussels School of Governance (BSoG), Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB) June 2021 List of acronyms AWACS Airborne Warning And Control System CSDP Common Security and Defence Policy EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone EIB European Investment Bank ESDP European Security and Defence Policy EU European Union EUGS European Union Global Strategy HR/VP High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy/Vice-President of the European Commission ICJ International Court of Justice MBT Modified Brussels Treaty NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization TEU Treaty on European Union TFEU Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union UN United Nations UNCLOS United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea WEU Western European Union F O N D A T I O N pour la R E C H E R C H E S T R A T é G I Q U E TABLE OF CONTENTS TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive summary 1 Introduction: the collective defence dimension of the dispute with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean 2 Reacting to the crisis in the Eastern Mediterranean: collective defence through the EU as an option of last resort 5 At the root of NATO’s embarrassment: institutional limitations and the hesitant leadership from the United States 5 The European Union’s prudent strategy: treading a thin line between dialogue opening and limited sanctions 7 Greece’s strategic rationale for raising the possibility of triggering article 42.7 TEU: alarming friends and foes alike 11 Activating article 42.7 TEU in the Eastern Mediterranean: under which conditions? . 13 Admissibility: would it be formally possible to invoke the EU collective defence clause against a NATO ally? 13 Historical background: the WEU’s Petersberg Declaration and the European Council’