TED中英官方演讲稿-BruceBuenodeMesquita_2009预测伊朗局势的未来.docxVIP

1.What Im going to try to do is explain to you quickly, how to predict, and illustrate it with some predictions about what Iran is going to do in the next couple of years. 我将很快的向大家解释一下 我们怎样预测未来 并且向大家展示一下 我们对未来几年伊朗局势所做出的一些预测2.In order to predict effectively, we need to use science. 为了做出准确的预测 我们需要利用科学3.And the reason that we need to use science is because then we can reproduce what were doing, its not just wisdom or guesswork. 而利用科学的原因是 我们可以重复验证所得到的结果 这就不是智者的预言或者瞎猜4.And if we can predict, then we can engineer the future. 如果我们可以预测未来 我们就可以操纵未来5.So if you are concerned to influence energy policy, or you are concerned to influence national security policy, or health policy, or education, 换言之，当你想去左右国家能源政策的时候 或者，当你想去影响国防政策 医疗政策或教育政策的时候6.science, and a particular branch of science is a way to do it, not the way weve been doing it, which is seat of the pants wisdom. 科学，其中一门科学将会为你指明未来 并不是靠我们所使用的方法 凭借经验或直觉去预言7.Now before I get into how to do it let me give you a little truth in advertising, because Im not engaged in the business of magic, 现在，在我进入主题之前 我先给大家一些事先声明， 我不是算命的8.there are lots of thing that the approach I take can predict, and there are some that it cant. 有一些东西我可以预测 有一些我不能9.It can predict complex negotiations or situations involving coercion, that is in essence everything that has to do with politics, much of what has to do with business, 我可以预测一些大型谈判 牵涉强制力的一些情景 总的来说，那就是所有和政治有关的事情 也包括一部份商业方面的10.but sorry, if youre looking to speculate in the stock market, I dont predict stock markets -- OK, its not going up any time really soon. 但如果你想在股市抄底，那实在不好意思 我确实不能预测股票市场，不过，好吧 反正最近是绝对不可能涨上去的11.But Im not engaged in doing that. 但那是我不会预测的12.Im not engaged in predicting random number generators, I actually get phone calls from people who want to know what lottery numbers are going to win. 我也不会去预测随机生成的数字 有人曾今打电话问我 下期中奖彩票号码是多少13.I dont have a clue. 那我爱莫能助。14.I engage in the use of game theory, game theory is a branch of mathematics and