首席经济学家2021年中展望.docxVIP

ContentsShaping the recovery momentum 4 Avoiding economic scarring 8Reversing domestic polarization and international divergence 12 Accelerating the climate transition 15References 17 Acknowledgments 19Cover: GETTY/lzusek Reversing domestic polarization and international divergence Governments that could afford to offer payouts during the lockdown period were generous with emergency financial support to households and businesses. Still, the economic crisis had a disproportionately negative effect within countries on groups who have historically been disadvantaged based on their race, ethnicity, gender or socioeconomic status. The younger generation is also facing a particular uphill battle, having experienced two global crises in just over a decade. According to a recent global workforce survey, 78% of Generation Z of 18-24 year olds saw their professional life affected by the crisis, and 39% lost their job, were furloughed or temporarily laid off. While still relatively high at 83%, optimism among Gen Z employees about their work life fell 10% during the pandemic, the biggest drop across all generations. ADP, 2021. ADP, 2021. The crisis accelerated automation, which has deepened labour market polarization within countries across all generations and is now turning into a recovery where some routine jobs will come back but will no longer be undertaken by human labour. The climate transition is an additional challenge that looks set to further increase labour market tensions within countries and regions if not properly managed. The regions most in need of transformation away from carbon-intensive activity are often those with the lowest living standards; such regions tend to also have structural weaknesses in labour markets and will therefore have a tougher time transforming, requiring very targeted interventions from governments. EIB, 2021. A lack of green skills is currently a major bottleneck for firms looking to transform their production. Ibid; Kimbrough, 2021 a