澳大利亚媒体行业：降低冠状病毒影 响的媒介.docxVIP

9 March 2020 Global Research EquitiesAustralasiaTelecommunicationsEric Choi Equities Australasia Telecommunications Eric Choi Analyst +61-2-9324 2356 Tom Beadle Analyst +61-2-9324 2126 Claire Yan Associate Analyst +61-2-9324 3218 Incorporating growing coronavirus risks into traditional media forecastsWe acknowledge the quantum and duration of coronavirus impacts is difficult to predict. Nevertheless we believe there is already enough evidence to cut top-down media forecasts based on: 1) the negative impact on consumer and business confidence, 2) qualitative industry (risk of cancelled ad campaigns as corporates respond to top-line pressures) and international media peer feedback (e.g. ITV downgraded its outlook on weaker travel spend), and 3) analysis of leading indicators for the travel, retail / luxury good and auto advertiser categories (?25-30% of the ad pie). We now assume a -10% yoy 2HFY20 decline in both the metro FT A TV and radio markets (previously -7%). In a weak ad market environment, we prefer names with a strong balance sheet, scope to reduce costs, and with some earnings downside already baked into expectations. Hence our preferences in traditional media are now NEC (Buy) and NWS (Buy). However we now downgrade SWM to Neutral (from Buy) given heightened refinancing risks - potential upside hinges on asset sales but we have little visibility here. Short-term risks for online media, but valuations are long-datedAt this stage we make only minor changes to our online media forecasts, given for CAR: analysis of Korean inventories suggests a benign coronavirus impact on SK Encar so far (though volumes could still worsen, and new car sales deteriorated in Feb-20), for SEK: forecasts already incorporate a modest degree of coronavirus impacts (though we see downside risks if impacts persist past Apr-20, or extend beyond Zhaopin billings), and for REA / DHG: UBS Economics still forecast a 2HCY20 house price new listings recovery (though reduced foreign dem