游轮业：低迷不会永远持续.docxVIP

Equity ResearchAmericas | United StatesCredit SuisseCruise Equity Research Americas | United States Doldrums Dont Last Forever: Initiating Coverage of CruiseTravel Leisure | Initiation Research AnalystsBenjamin Chaiken Research Analysts Benjamin Chaiken 212 325 2585 Ben Combes, CFA 212 538 2383 Sarah Murray 212 325 2282 Although the cruise industry may take years to regain pricing parity, we think the unmatched value proposition of the product will drive its recovery. A cruise includes accommodations, activities, meals, etc. at a 50-70% discount to many other vacation options. We are unable to think of a vacation alternative that involves international travel, multiple cities, entertainment (from live shows to shore excursions), as well as resort-like amenities at this price point. Additionally, we think the cruise demographic is favorable for a recovery in demand, and could be why 55% of cruise customers, according to our checks, are opting for a cruise credit vs. cash, post COVID-19 disruption. We think this is a very powerful data point highlighting the resiliency in the product, and speaks volumes in terms of future demand for the industry, especially in the context of current sentiment which questions if the product will even exist in the future. Keep in mind, 82% of cruise customers are repeat users, and the average age of a consumer traveling by cruise to the Caribbean is ~42 years. Further, in both our cruise and broader leisure industry checks, there is a clear trend in the post COVID-19 world towards activities that accommodate drive-to customers relative to those that require long haul air travel, in part due to cost. At this point, we think operators have close to a year or more of liquidity in a zero revenue environment, which in part removes the guessing game from when cruise will return in 20. While we have ’20 estimates, our thesis is based on a recovery of demand in 21 and beyond. Cruise has navigated turbulence in the past (Concordia sinking and d