国际研究报告Societe Generale-ECONOMICS THEMES - World Trade：Shift in China’s role imminent.pdfVIP

ECONOMICS 14 May 2013 Important Notice: The circumstances in which this publication has been produced are such that it is not appropriate to characterise it as independent investment research as referred to in MiFID and that it should be treated as a marketing communication even if it contains a research recommendation. This publication is also not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. However, SG is required to have policies to manage the conflicts which may arise in the production of its research, including preventing dealing ahead of investment research. Extract from a report Global Themes World Trade: Shift in China’s role imminent Themes Economist China’s role in world trade will change this decade as its export share peaks and export Dev Ashish (91) 080 2802 4381 competitiveness weakens vis-à-vis neighbouring emerging markets (although not necessarily dev.ashish@ India versus OECD countries). The income elasticity of Chinese exports will eventually converge to a level commensurate to its size in the world economy. The ongoing restructuring will further drive the point, helping large and low-cost neighbouring emerging markets grab share in world exports while China competes in high-end products and increases its share of imports. The established non-China manufacturers (including OECD countries) may benefit during the transitional period, while other emerging markets create capacity/infrastructure.