全球多资产策略：被美元阻击.docxVIP

9 December 2019Blocked by the dollarMulti-Asset BulletinMulti-AssetGlobal 9 December 2019 Blocked by the dollar Multi-Asset Bulletin Multi-Asset Global Max Kettner Multi-Asset Strategist HSBC Bank plc maximilian.l.kettner@hsbc +44 20 7991 5045 Mark McDonald Head of Data Science and Analytics HSBC Bank plc mark.mcdonald@hsbcib +44 20 7991 5966 Daragh Maher Head of Research, Americas/Head of FX Strategy, US HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. daragh.maher@us.hsbc +1 212 525 4114 Melissa McCallum Multi-Asset Strategist HSBC Bank plc melissa.mccallum@hsbc +44 20 7991 5919 Duncan Toms Fixed Income Multi-Asset Strategist HSBC Bank plc duncan.toms@hsbc +44 20 7991 3025 Jayasankar Mallisetty* Associate Bangalore * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Global ResearchRisk assets and oil proxies are slightly higher as better US macro data and OPEC+ supported gains Our multi-asset allocation remains cautious: UW equities HYWe delve into the recent rise of the risk-on/risk-off pattern Risk assets were on the back foot slightly for much of last week. Yet, better-than- expected US macro data saw this retrace, such that equities and high yield closed the week slightly higher. We remain cautious in our multi-asset allocation though as there is still a strong divergence between forward-looking macro data and market pricing. Positioning is also not as light as some perceive - see TINAS FOMO、5 December 2019. Mu/ti?Asset SpotlightCentral banks across the globe are cutting rates aggressively. Equity and fixed income markets are both rallying. Heightened political risks, particularly for global trade. All these are the well-knowns of 2019. But perhaps one of the most overlooked phenomena of this year is the return of risk-on/risk-off (RORO). This matters greatly, especially in multi-asset. Weve seen our risk-on/risk-off indicator rise substantially this year. Moreover, our multi-as