全球-量化策略-峰值的时间到了!但这个因素一直在起作用.docxVIP

13 February 2019 Buyback Special Its peak time! But the factor keeps workingEQUITIES ALPHA STRATEGYGlobal Global gross repurchase volumes exceeded USDItrn before slowing down again during the market correction in Q4 2018After the peak, buyback activity is likely to decline this year due to high financial leverage and lower earnings growth By contrast, the buyback factor could benefit from re-rating and its defensive but otherwise balanced style positioningVolumes down, factor performance up? 2018 was a record year for share buybacks, although the market correction during Q4 caused companies to reduce their repurchase activities again. We expect buyback volumes to retreat further from their peak levels mainly because of high financial leverage and lower earnings growth. However, the decline should be limited as FCF growth is still supportive. Besides, our newly introduced regression model shows that after the financial crisis, buybacks have become a more discretionary decision, thus less dependent on the commonly known fundamental drivers. Dr. Philipp Kaufmann*, CFA Equity StrategistHSBC Trinkaus Burkhardt AG +49 211 910 1458 Volker Borghoff*Strategist HSBC Trinkaus Burkhardt AG +49 211 910 3298* Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations As for the net buyback yield factor, we remain constructive and expect last years outperformance to continue. Absolute and relative valuations are low, which offers room for some re-rating. Besides, the factor could benefit in different market scenarios from both its defensiveness and slightly pro-cyclical macro exposure. We display six global and European buyback screens on pages 5 to 11, highlighting top-ranked stocks with high trailing net buyback yield and total shareholder yield, respectively, as well as cash-rich names with significant expected repurchase volumes. We provide also a link to our buyback stock-selection model (Excel file here), wh