基尔世界经济研究所-非洲实体部门宏观经济稳定和结构复原力（英）-2022.8.pdf

KIEL WORKING PAPER Real Sector Macroeconomic Stabilization and Structural Resilience in Africa No. 2229 | August 2022 Sebastian Krantz Kiel Institute for the World Economy ISSN 1862– 1155 KIEL WORKING PAPER NO. 2229 | AUGUST 2022 ABSTRACT Real Sector Macroeconomic Stabilization and Structural Resilience in Africa Sebastian Krantz Over the past 30 years (1990-2019), African economies have experienced remarkable improvements in real macroeconomic conditions, characterized by higher and more stable real per-capita growth rates, and lower and more stable inflation. This paper documents and seeks to explain these changes at the aggregate and sectoral levels. Sectoral analysis shows a particularly strong reduction in growth volatility, of more than 50%, in the agricultural sector, and a gradual stabilization in services. On the expenditure side, private consumption and investment have also stabilized considerably. Most of the decline in aggregate growth volatility is due to within-sector changes in volatility, structural change explains less than 5%. Correlates of African stabilization are firstly a more favorable external environment through lower levels of external debt, higher levels of FDI and remittances, and improved terms of trade (ToT), as well as lower volatility of ToT and financial flows. These developments were complemented by better exchange rate management (resulting in lower exchange rate and inflation volatility) and more fiscal stability through the adoption of fiscal rules. Domestic financial deepening and higher levels of reserves, both official and by banks, as well as slightly higher national savings, further increased Africa’s resilience to shocks. Regarding structural characteristics, the quality of the institutional and business environment appears to