伯纳德·W·泰勒-数据、模型与决策（英文版·第10版）taylor_introms10_ppt_12.pptVIP

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伯纳德·W·泰勒-数据、模型与决策（英文版·第10版）taylor_introms10_ppt_12.ppt

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* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution (1 of 9) Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution (2 of 9) Determine the best decision without probabilities using the 5 criteria of the chapter. Determine best decision with probabilities assuming .70 probability of good conditions, .30 of poor conditions. Use expected value and expected opportunity loss criteria. Compute expected value of perfect information. Develop a decision tree with expected value at the nodes. Given following, P(P?g) = .70, P(N?g) = .30, P(P?p) = 20, P(N?p) = .80, determine posterior probabilities using Bayes’ rule. Perform a decision tree analysis using the posterior probability obtained in part e. Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Step 1 (part a): Determine decisions without probabilities. Maximax Decision: Maintain status quo Decisions Maximum Payoffs Expand $800,000 Status quo 1,300,000 (maximum) Sell 320,000 Maximin Decision: Expand Decisions Minimum Payoffs Expand $500,000 (maximum) Status quo -150,000 Sell 320,000 Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution (3 of 9) Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Minimax Regret Decision: Expand Decisions Maximum Regrets Expand $500,000 (minimum) Status quo 650,000 Sell 980,000 Hurwicz (? = .3) Decision: Expand Expand $800,000(.3) + 500,000(.7) = $590,000 Status quo $1,300,000(.3) - 150,000(.7) = $285,000 Sell $320,000(.3) + 320,000(.7) = $320,000 Decision Analysis Example Problem Solution (4 of 9) Copyright ? 2010 Pearson Education, Inc. Publishing as Prentice Hall Equal Likelihood Decision: Expand Expand $800,000(.5) + 500,000(.5) = $650,000 Status quo $1,300,000(.5) - 150,000(.5) = $575,000 Sell $320,000(.5) + 320,000(.5) = $320,000 Step 2 (part b): Determine Decisions wi