2023全球宏观展望.pdf

Note: The following is a redacted version of the original report published on 16 November 2022 [24 pgs]. 16 November 2022 | 10:59AM EST Global Economics Analyst Macro Outlook 2023: This Cycle Is Different n Global growth slowed through 2022 on a diminishing reopening boost, fiscal and Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@ monetary tightening, China’s Covid restrictions and property slump, and the Goldman Sachs Co. LLC Russia-Ukraine war. We expect global growth of just 1.8% in 2023, as US Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | resilience contrasts with a European recession and a bumpy reopening in China. daan.struyven@ Goldman Sachs Co. LLC n The US should narrowly avoid recession as core PCE inflation slows from 5% Yulia Zhestkova +1(646)446-3905 | now to 3% in late 2023 with a ½pp rise in the unemployment rate. To keep yulia.zhestkova@ Goldman Sachs Co. LLC growth below potential amidst stronger real income growth, we now see the Devesh Kodnani Fed hiking another 125bp to a peak of 5-5.25