数量经济学课件-应用统计决策.pptVIP

Opportunity Loss（机会损失）: Example Highest possible profit for an event Ei - Actual profit obtained for an action Aj Opportunity Loss (lij ) Event: Cool Weather Action: Soft Drinks Profit: $50 Alternative Action: Hot Dogs Profit: $100 Opportunity Loss = $100 - $50 = $50 Opportunity Loss: Table Event Optimal Profit of Sell Soft Drinks Sell Hot Dogs Action Optimal Action Cool Hot 100 100 - 50 = 50 100 - 100 = 0 Weather Dogs Warm Soft 200 200 - 200 = 0 200 - 125 = 75 Weather Drinks Alternative Course of Action Decision Criteria决策准则 Expected Monetary Value (EMV) The expected profit for taking an action Aj Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) The expected loss for not taking action Aj Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) The expected opportunity loss from the best decision Decision Criteria -- EMV期望货币价值 Expected Monetary Value (EMV) Sum (monetary payoffs of events) ?? (probabilities of the events) Xij Pi ??Vj ? ? N EMVj = expected monetary value of action j xi,j = payoff for action j and event i Pi = probability of event i occurring i = 1 Decision Criteria -- EMV Table Example: Food Vendor Pi Event Soft xijPi Hot xijPi Drinks Dogs .50 Cool $50 $50 ?.5 = $25 $100 $100?.50 = $50 .50 Warm $200 $200 ?.5 = 100 $125 $25?.50 = 62.50 EMV Soft Drink = $125 EMV Hot Dog = $112.50 Better alternative Decision Criteria -- EOL 期望机会损失 Expected Opportunity Loss (EOL) Sum (opportunity losses of events) ? (probabilities of events) ??Lj ? ? lij Pi EOLj = expected monetary value of action j li,j = payoff for action j and event i Pi = probability of event i occurring i =1 N Decision Criteria -- EOL Table Example: Food Vendor Pi