巴德 宏观经济学原理（英文版·第8版）Chapter 15 Eye Ons.pptxVIP

EYE Ons15The Short-RunPolicy Tradeoff The short-run Phillips curve describes the unemployment–inflation tradeoff that we face. In the short run, we can have low unemployment only if we permit the inflation rate to rise.And we can have low inflation only if we permit the unemployment rate to increase. But in the long run, we can improve that tradeoff.We can have low unemployment if we can lower the natural unemployment rate, but that is hard to do. We can have low inflation if we can lower the expected inflation rate.That, too, is hard to do, but it isn’t as hard as lowering the natural unemployment rate.The expected inflation rate does change frequently and sometimes by large amounts.The years 2000–2015 show how changes in the expected inflation rate change the short-run tradeoff. The blue dots show the unemployment rate and the inflation rate each year from 2000 to 2015.The red line shows how the relationship between inflation and unemployment changed. During 2000–2015, the natural unemployment rate was constant at 5 percent, so the long-run Phillips curve remained fixed at LRPC.The expected inflation rate was 2.5 percent a year in 2000–2002 and the short-run Phillips curve was SRPC0. The expected inflation rate rose to 3.5 percent a year and stayed there until 2005.The short-run Phillips curve shifted to SRPC1.In 2006, the expected inflation rate fell to 2.5 percent a year and the short-run Phillips curve shifted back to SRPC0. In 2015, the expected inflation rate fell to zero percent per year and the short-run Phillips curve shifted down to SRPC2.The tradeoff improved again.The 2015 data show that we can have low inflation and low unemployment. The Phillips curve is so named because New Zealand economist A.W. Phillips discovered the relationship in about 100 years of unemployment data for the United Kingdom.The figure on the next page shows the data for unemployment and inflation in the United Kingdom from 1900 to 1997. The data reveals no neat, tight tradeoff.