行为金融学英文版教材6至10章课后答案.docxVIP

行为金融学英文版教材6至10章课后答案 Chapter6 1、 miscalibration : is the tendency for people to overestimate the precision of their knowledge.标准 误差是人们高估自己知识精确度的一种趋势。 excessive optimism: peoples predictions about the future are unrealistically optimistic.过度乐观 人们对于将来的预测是不切实际的乐观。 better-than average effect: Better-than-average effect says that many of us feel we are smarter or more skilled than average.好过平均水平效应：我们大多数人都认为自己的智慧或技能比 平均水平要好。 Illusion of control: people think that they have more control over events than objectively can be true.控制幻想：人们认为他们有比实际更大的支配事物的能力。 self-attribution bias: the tendency for people to attribute successes or good outcomes to their own abilities ,while blaming failures on circumstances beyond their control, can lead to an increase in overconfidence.自我归因偏见：人们通常把成功或好的结果归功于自己的能力，而把失败归 咎于自己控制之外的环境。 Confirmation bias: the tendency to search out evidence consistence with ones prior beliefs and to ignore conflicting data.证实偏差：是指当人们确立了某一个信念或观点时，在收集信息和 分析信息的过程中，他们有一种寻找支持这个信念的证据的倾向，也就是说他们会很容易接 受支持这个信念的信息，而忽略否定这个信念的信息。甚至还会花费更多的时间和认知资源 贬低与他们的看法相左的观点。 pros of overconfidence:过度自信的优点：当目标确定，行动确定的时候，过度自信可能促进 我们的效应。 cons of overeonfidence: 过度自信的缺点：过度自信会导致过度交易，从而影响金融市场。 2 、miscalibration is greater for hard questions,it is greater when we look at 50% confidence ranges. 3 、suppose you are about to bowl with your friends. In standard 10-pin bowling,300 is the maximum score , and 200 is and excellent one. You are feeling buoyant today and boldly predict 225 as your score, with a 90% confidence range of between 200 and 250.Over the year, you have averaged 175, with 90% of your results falling within 50 points of this magnitude (between125and225). On the basis of your season record, you are excessively optimistic(by 50 原创力文档 points).Moreover, you are miscalibrated, with your confidence interval being oninaQ% 下 载 高 清 无 水 印 as it should be. 4、 过度自信有以下几个方面的表现，1、标准误差。2、过度乐观。3、好过平均 水平。4、控制幻觉。这些表现说明了过度自信是随着时间演变而来的。确定性 偏差是指人们有意或无意地寻找支持自己之前的看法的信息和解释，避免不同看 法