1960-中国极端气候要素时空变化分析.docx

? ? 1960 中国极端气候要素时空变化分析 ? ? 曹晴 郝振纯 傅晓洁 郝洁 鲁乘阳 摘?要：研究全球变暖背景下极端气候要素的变化对流域和区域防洪抗旱具有重要意义。利用1960—2017年全国554个气象站点的逐日降雨和气温数据，选用线性拟合、R/S分析等方法分析了中国近58 a极端气候要素的趋势性、空间性、持续性和平均循环长度。结果表明：气温极值呈上升趋势，极端高温（低温）事件的频率和持续性不断增大（减小），中国呈变暖趋势;空间上，极端气温指数在高原山地区具有较大的变幅。极端降雨的量级指数和强度指数呈增大趋势，持续性指数呈减小趋势;极端降雨量级指数和强度指数变幅的高值区在热带季风区（增大趋势），持续干旱指数和持续湿润指数变幅的高值区分别为温带大陆区（减小趋势）、温带季风区（减小趋势）。R/S分析表明未来极端气温事件将继续增多，区域一致性显著; 不同地区极端降雨指数未来增大或减小的趋势不一致，极端气温指数的平均循环长度整体大于极端降雨指数的。 Key：Hurst指数;平均循环长度;变化趋势;极端气候指数;中国;1960—2017年 ：P467?文献标志码：A doi：10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2020.02.003 Abstract：In the context of global warming， it is of great significance to study the changes of extreme climatic elements for flood control and drought relief in river basins and regions. The trendencies，spatiality， sustainability and average cycle length of extreme climatic elements in China in the last 58 years were analyzed by using the daily meteorological data of 554 meteorological stations throughout the country from 1960 to 2017 by using linear fitting， R/S analysis and other methods. The results show that the temperature extremums are on the rise， the frequency and sustainability of extreme high（low） temperature events are increasing（decreasing）， indicating that China is warming. Spatially， the extreme temperature indexes have higher variation in the plateau region. the magnitude and intensity indexes of extreme rainfall are on the upward trend， while the sustainability indexes are on the downward trend. Spatially， the high value areas of extreme rainfall indexess level and intensity variation are in tropical monsoon region （increase）， and the high value areas of continuous drought index and continuous humid index are temperate continental region （decrease） and temperate monsoon region （decrease） respectively. the R/S analysis shows that extreme temperature continues to increase in the future， regional consistency is significant; the trends of future increase or decrease of extreme rainfall indexes in different regions are inconsisten