商务与经济统计(原书第14版)Ch19.pptxVIP

Statistics for Business and Economics (14e)Metric VersionAnderson, Sweeney, Williams, Camm, Cochran, Fry, Ohlmann? 2020 Cengage Learning? 2020 Cengage. May not be scanned, copied or duplicated, or posted to a publicly accessible website, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license distributed with a certain product or service or otherwise on a password-protected website or school-approved learning management system for classroom use.1 Chapter 19 - Decision Analysis19.1 - Problem Formulation19.2 - Decision Making with Probabilities19.3 - Decision Analysis with Sample Information19.4 - Computing Branch Probabilities using Bayes’ Theorem2 Problem Formulation (1 of 2)The first step in the decision analysis process is problem formulation.We begin with a verbal statement of the problem.Then we identify:the decision alternativesthe states of nature (uncertain future events)the payoffs (consequences) associated with each specific combination of:decision alternativestate of nature3 Problem Formulation (2 of 2)A decision problem is characterized by decision alternatives, states of nature, and resulting payoffs.The decision alternatives are the different possible strategies the decision maker can employ.The states of nature refer to future events, not under the control of the decision maker, which may occur.States of nature should be defined so that they are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive.4 Payoff TablesThe consequence resulting from a specific combination of a decision alternative and a state of nature is a payoff.A table showing payoffs for all combinations of decision alternatives and states of nature is a payoff table.Payoffs can be expressed in terms of profit, cost, time, distance or any other appropriate measure.5 Decision Trees (1 of 2)A decision tree provides a graphical representation showing the sequential nature of the decision-making process.Each decision tree has two types of nodes:round nodes correspond to the states of natu