电网可靠性评估中负荷相关性的广义交叉熵模型.pdfVIP

第43 卷 第8 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.43 No.8 Apr. 20, 2023 2023 年4 月20 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ©2023 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. 2921 DOI ：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.213096 文章编号：0258-8013 (2023) 08-2921-10 中图分类号：TM 73 文献标识码：A 电网可靠性评估中负荷相关性的广义交叉熵模型 赵渊，杜玮明，程学渊，任和，谢开贵 (输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学) ，重庆市 沙坪坝区 400044) Dependence Modeling of Correlated Bus Loads Based on Generalized Cross Entropy Method for Composite Power System Reliability Evaluation ZHAO Yuan, DU Weiming, CHENG Xueyuan, REN He, XIE Kaigui (State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment System Security and New Technology (Chongqing University), Shapingba District, Chongqing 400044, China) ABSTRACT: The dependence modeling of bus loads based on 估计的准确性。通过将改进GCE 模型与传统GCE、非参数 probability density estimation technique is the key to research 密度估计和半参数密度估计在稀疏性和准确性上的理论分 the impacts of correlated bus loads on the power system 析和算例比较，以及对 RBTS 、IEEE-RTS79 、IEEE-RTS96 reliability. From the view of model sparsity and accuracy, an 测试系统的评估分析，验证了改进GCE 模型的有效性。 improved generalized cross entropy (GCE) method is proposed 关键词：可靠性；广义交叉熵；稀疏性；概率负荷模型 to estimate the joint PDF of nodal loads. First, the constrained functional extreme problem based on GCE postulate and the 0 引言 corresponding dual problem are presented to achieve the joint PDF. Moreover, the dual problem is converted into a quadratic 电网可靠性评估需要对电网运行中的各种随 programming problem for weights optimization of the kernel 机特性进行概率刻画，其中对负荷的相关性变化规 functions in the estimated joint PDF. Furthermore, the problem 律进行深度挖掘，基于数据驱动构建方便易用的节 existing in the traditional GCE method related with the solution