IMF-气候变化下自然灾害抗灾投资的宏观经济回报：DSGE方法（英）-2023.6-49页.docxVIP

The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, Andres Gonzalez-Gomez, and Alejandro Guerson WP/23/138 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 JUN * The authors would like to thank Sònia Mu?oz, Andrew Berg and the participants in seminars at the International Monetary Fund and the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank for insightful comments and suggestions . ? 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/138 IMF Working Paper Western Hemisphere Department The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach Prepared by Emilio Fernandez-Corugedo, Andres Gonzalez-Gomez, and Alejandro Guerson* Authorized for distribution by Christoph Duenwald, Sònia Mu?oz, and Andrew Berg June 2023 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper presents a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model designed to evaluate the macroeconomic return of adaptation investment to natural disasters (NDs) and the impact of climate change. While the model follows the existing literature in assuming that NDs destroy a share of the public and private capital stocks and a government that can invest in adaptation at an additional cost, it adds several features that are key to the analysis, both in the near (transition) and long (steady state) terms. Those include incomplete markets