【行业报告】IMF-汽车与绿色转型：欧洲工人面临的挑战与机遇（英）-2023.6_市场营销策划_20.docxVIP

Cars and Green Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for European Workers Oya Celasun, Galen Sher, Petia Topalova, and Jing Zhou WP/23/116 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2023 JUN ? 2023 International Monetary Fund WP/23/116 IMF Working Paper European Department Cars and Green Transition: Challenges and Opportunities for European Workers Prepared by Oya Celasun, Galen Sher, Petia Topalova, and Jing Zhou Authorized for distribution by Oya Celasun June 2023 IMF Working Papers IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: Reducing transport sector emissions is an important pillar of the green transition. However, the transition to electric vehicles (EV) portends major changes in vehicle manufacturing activity, on which many livelihoods in Europe depend. Using the heterogeneity across European countries in the speed of transition to EV production and variation in sectoral and regional exposure to the automotive sector, this paper offers early evidence of the labor market implications of the EV transition. Our results suggest that the transformation of the auto sector is already having an adverse impact on employment in the affected sectors and regions, which can be expected to grow at least in the near term. Many of the affected workers will be able to retire and our analysis suggests that those who will have to transition to new “greener” jobs have a fair chance to do so when compared to other workers in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, we