2023高考英语真题阅读精读含答案.docxVIP

2023高考英语真题阅读精读含答案 本文是说明文。没有人是一座孤岛，文章陈述了“群体智慧”效应。实验表明，在某些情况下大量独立估计的平均值可能是相当准确的。 D On March 7, 1907, the English?statistician?Francis Galton published a paper which?illustrated?what?has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of?estimation?he conducted showed that in some cases, the?average?of a large number of?independent estimates?could be quite accurate. This effect?capitalizes on?the fact that when people?make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to?overestimate, and some to?underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they?cancel?each other out, resulting in a?more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become?correlated?or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down. But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting?twist?(转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average?obtained?from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals. In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the?dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together.” Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a?