Goldman Sachs｜高盛全球观点：软着陆夏季.pdf

4 September 2023 | 9:16PM EDT Global Views: Soft Landing Summer 1. The continued positive inflation and labor market news has led us to cut our Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@ estimated 12-month US recession probability further to 15%, down 5pp from our Goldman Sachs Co. LLC prior estimate and equal to the unconditional average recession probability of 15% calculated from the fact that a recession has occurred roughly once every seven years since WW2. Our estimate is far below the Bloomberg consensus, which remains stuck at 60%. (The less timely surveys conducted by the Wall Street Journal and Blue Chip Economic Indicators show slightly lower numbers.) We are also substantially more optimistic than most other forecasters in terms of our baseline GDP growth forecast, which averages 2% through the end of 2024. N C . M Exhibit 1: We Have Lowered Our 12-Month US Recession Probability Further to 15% O C . C B Percent US 12-Month Ahead Recession Probability Percent C I M. 100 GS Bloomberg Consensus 100 W April 2022: September 2023: Launched GS @ Tracking at 15% March 2023: Lowered to 15% on N 80 October 2022: Raised to 35% Continued Positive 80 E