【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件8大学课.pptxVIP

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【PPT精品课件】货币金融学7版英文课件8大学课.pptx

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Chapter 28Rational Expectations: Implications for Policy? 2022 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Lucas Critique Lucas challenges usefulness of econometric models for policy evaluation1. Critique follows from RE implication that change in way variable moves, changes way expectations are formed2. Policy change, changes relationship between expectations and past behavior3. Estimated relationships in econometric model change4. Therefore, can’t be used to evaluate change in policy Example: Evaluate effect on long rate from Bank policy raising shortterm i permanently, if in past changes in i quickly reversed1. Estimated term structure relationship indicates only small change in long rate2. Once realize short i ? permanently, average future short rates ? a lot, long rate ? a lot3. Another implication of Lucas analysis: expectations about policy influences response to policy2? 2022 Pearson Education Canada Inc. New Classical ModelAssumptions:1. Rational expectations2. Wages and prices completely flexible, adjust fully to changes in expected price levelImplications:1. Policy ineffectiveness proposition: anticipated policy has no effect on business cycle2. Effects of policy are uncertain because depend on expectations3. No beneficial effect from activist policy: supports nonactivism? 2022 Pearson Education Canada Inc.3 Response to Unanticipated Policy in New Classical Model1. M ?, AD shifts right to AD22. Because M ? unanticipated, expected price level unchanged and AS stays at AS13. Go to 2: Y ?, P ?4? 2022 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Response to Anticipated Policy in New Classical Model1. M ?, AD shifts right to AD22. M ? anticipated, expected price level ? to P2, AS shifts in to AS23. Go to 2: Y unchanged, P ? by more5? 2022 Pearson Education Canada Inc. New Keynesian ModelAssumptions:1. Rational expectations2. Wages and prices have rigidity: don’t adjust fully to changes in expected price levelImplications:1. Unanticipated policy has larger effect on Y than anticipated