温州地区雾霾气候特征及其预报.docxVIP

温州地区雾霾气候特征及其预报 郑峰;颜琼丹;吴贤笃;周必高;吴孟春 【摘要】利用温州8个气象站点近40年的雾日和霾日统计资料，从时间和空间两 方面分析了温州雾、霾日数的气候特征和变化规律结果表明,1971-2008年期间， 温州市区（平原）地区雾日数显著减少，洞头（海岛）地区雾日数缓慢减少，泰顺（高山）地 区雾日数呈波动式缓慢增长,21世纪初有明显增多；温州地区霾日数,除泰顺（高山） 地区缓慢增长外,总体呈快速增多趋势，增多开始发生在20世纪70年代后期,21世 纪初霾日数显著增加，其中永嘉和瑞安增加最快.温州雾日数冬春多，夏秋少；霾日数 冬季最多，夏季最少.同时，利用近年来气象部门与环保部门联合开展的空气质量预报 产品，如空气污染指数（API）,建立雾、霾预报方法.统计2004-2009年间的雾、霾与 空气污染指数的相关关系,并兼及晴雨天气条件，总结出包含晴雨、空气污染指数及 雾、霾3要素的线性公式，作为预报雾、霾工具.经检验，效果较好,预报未来24 h雾、 霾准确率达57%~66%.并通过编程实现计算机自动预报.％Based on the fog and haze data from 8 meteorological stations in Wenzhou, the temporal and spatial climatic characteristics and the variation regularities of fog and haze days in recent 40 years are analyzed. The results indicate that from 1971 to 2008, the number of fog days in the urban area of Wenzhou significantly decreased. Fog days in exurban area of Wenzhou decreased slowly. Haze days in urban and exurban areas of Wenzhou increased from 1971 to 2008 as a whole, and such increase occurred mainly after 1979. During the period of 2001 to 2008, the number of haze days was the greatest in Wenzhou, with most fog and haze days in winter and least in summer. From 1971 to 2008, fog days decreased in most regions of Wenzhou, but haze days increased in all regions of Wenzhou, especially haze days increased rapidly in Urban. The relation has been found between fog, haze, precipitation, and API from the data of 2004 to 2009, based on which a forecasting model is established, with the forecasting accuracy up to 57% to 66%. The verification indicates that the relation is useful in fog and haze forecasting, and the computer-aided automatic forecasting is applicable. 【期刊名称】《气象科技》 【年(卷)，期】2011(039)006 【总页数】5页(P791-795) 【关键词】雾;霾;气候特征;预报 【作者】郑峰;颜琼丹;吴贤笃;周必高;吴孟春 【作者单位】中国气象科学研究院，北京100081;南京信息工程大学，南京210044; 浙江省温州市气象局，温州325027;浙江省台州市气象局，台州318000;浙江省温州 市气象局，温州325027;浙江省温州市气象局，温州325027;浙江省温州市气象局，温 州 325027 【正文语种】中文 根据气象观测规范的定义，雾是指大量微小水滴浮游空中，使水平能见度小于 1 . 0km的天气现象。频繁出现的大雾天气不仅对交通、航运等有严重影响，其伴 随的稳定层结大气也使城市污染加重，给经济建设和人民生活带来重大损失［1］。 霾是