2022.9-IMF-欧佩克与石油市场-英-30页.pdf

OPEC and the Oil Market Yousef F. Nazer and Andrea Pescatori WP/22/183 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. 2022 SEP © 2022 International Monetary Fund WP/22/183 IMF Working Paper Research Department OPEC and the Oil Market1 Prepared by Yousef F. Nazer and Andrea Pescatori Authorized for distribution by Antonio Spilimbergo September 2022 IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. ABSTRACT: This paper studies the historical importance of OPEC for oil price fluctuations. An event-study approach is used to identify the effects of OPEC announcements on oil price fluctuations. Results show that price volatility is higher than typical around OPEC meetings. Also, m embers compliance, a proxy for credibility, has strongly fluctuated over time. An ordered multinomial logit framework identifies the main factors that explain OPECs decisions to cut, maintain, or boost m embers oil production and is able to successfully predict OPEC meeting outcomes 66 percent of the time, between 1989 and 20 19. Cyclical oil price fluctuations (a s opposed to persi