2015-2040年日本家庭人口预测（英）.pdfVIP

HouseholdProjectionsforJapan2015-20401)

OutlineofResultsandMethods

Introduction

“HouseholdProjectionsforJapan(OutlineofResultsandMethods)”projectedthenumberofhouseholds

nationwideandwasreleasedin2018.Theinitialpopulationusedasthebenchmarkoftheprojectionswasobtained

byadjustingtheresultsofthe2015Census.

I.FrameworkofProjections

1.PeriodofProjections

Theperiodforthepresentprojectionsisthetwenty-fiveyearsfromOctober1,2015toOctober1,2040.

2.MethodandResultsofProjections

Theessentialpartofthehouseholdprojectionswascarriedoutbythehouseholdtransitionmethod.Thismethod

projectsdistributionsbycombinationoffuturemaritalstatesandhouseholdpositions,bysettingtransition

probabilitiesofmembersprivatehouseholds,andappliesthemtothepopulationbysexandfive-yearagegroupof

“PopulationProjectionsforJapan(Publishedin2017)”2)(mediumfertility/mediummortalityvariant)inorderto

projectthepopulationbysex,five-yearagegroup,andcombinationofmaritalstateandhouseholdpositions.

Householdsareidentifiedwithmarkerssuchas“one-personhouseholds,”“couple-onlyhouseholds,”“couple-and-

child(ren)households,”“one-parent-and-child(ren)households,”and“otherhouseholds.”Markersrefertomembers

regardedaskeypersonsintermsofhouseholdformation/dissolutioninprojectionmodelsandusuallymatchwiththe

householdheadsoftheCensus.Forexceptionalcasessuchasawifeorachildbecomingtheheadof“couple-and-

child(ren)households,”wesetcertainrulessuchasthemarkerof“couple-and-child(ren)households”alwaysbeing

thehusbandandthemarkerof“one-parent-and-child(ren)households”alwaysbeingtheparent.Weappliedthe

correspondencebetwe