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CHAPTER8IndexModels
8-2ReducesthenumberofinputsfordiversificationEasierforsecurityanalyststospecializeAdvantagesoftheSingleIndexModel
8-3βi=responseofanindividualsecurity’sreturntothecommonfactor,m.Betameasuressystematicrisk.m=acommonmacroeconomicfactorthataffectsallsecurityreturns.TheSP500isoftenusedasaproxyform.ei=firm-specificsurprisesSingleFactorModel
8-4Single-IndexModelRegressionEquation:Expectedreturn-betarelationship:
8-5Single-IndexModelRiskandcovariance:Variance=SystematicriskandFirm-specificrisk:Covariance=productofbetasxmarketindexrisk:
8-6Single-IndexModelCorrelation=productofcorrelationswiththemarketindex
8-7IndexModelandDiversificationVarianceoftheequallyweightedportfoliooffirm-specificcomponents:Whenngetslarge,σ2(ep)becomesnegligibleandfirmspecificriskisdiversifiedaway.
8-8Figure8.1TheVarianceofanEquallyWeightedPortfoliowithRiskCoefficientβp
8-9Figure8.2ExcessReturnsonHPand
SP500
8-10Figure8.3ScatterDiagramofHP,theSP500,andHP’sSecurityCharacteristicLine(SCL)
8-11Table8.1ExcelOutput:RegressionStatisticsfortheSCLofHewlett-Packard
8-12Table8.1InterpretationCorrelationofHPwiththeSP500is0.7238.Themodelexplainsabout52%ofthevariationinHP.HP’salphais0.86%permonth(10.32%annually)butitisnotstatisticallysignificant.HP’sbetais2.0348,butthe95%confidenceintervalis1.43to2.53.
8-13Figure8.4ExcessReturnsonPortfolioAssets
8-14AlphaandSecurityAnalysisUsemacroeconomicanalysistoestimatetheriskpremiumandriskofthemarketindex.Usestatisticalanalysistoestimatethebetacoefficientsofallsecuritiesandtheirresidualvariances,σ2(ei).
8-15AlphaandSecurityAnalysisEstablishtheexpectedreturnofeachsecurityabsentanycontributionfromsecurityanalysis.Usesecurityanalysistodevelopprivateforecastsoftheexpectedreturnsforeac
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