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NBERWORKINGPAPERSERIES
PREDICTINGPOLICEMISCONDUCT
GregStoddard
DylanJ.Fitzpatrick
JensLudwig
WorkingPaper32432
/papers/w32432
NATIONALBUREAUOFECONOMICRESEARCH
1050MassachusettsAvenue
Cambridge,MA02138
May2024
ThisprojectwassupportedbytheIrvingHarrisFoundation,GriffinCatalyst,theJoyceFoundation,theCharlesKochFoundation,theMacArthurFoundation,theMotorolaSolutionsFoundationandtheU.S.DepartmentOfJustice’sBureauofJusticeAssistance.WearegratefultotheChicagoPoliceDepartmentaswellastheIndependentMonitoringteamfortheChicagoPoliceDepartment’sconsentdecreewiththeIllinoisAttorneyGeneralfortheirpartnershipandguidance,particularlyBarbaraWest,BobBoik,JackKenterandRickPeplinski.ThisworkwasmadepossiblebysupportfromtheUniversityofChicagoCrimeLab,especiallyRoseannaAnder,AnthonyBerglund,EllenDunn,NicoleGillespie,MaggieGoodrich,KatieLarsen,SandyJoMacArthur,ZoeRussek,andDiamondThompson.ThankstoDanielleAllen,HyeChang,JohnGreer,EmmaNechamkin,andAlexWilliamsonfortheiroutstandingdatasciencework.ForthoughtfulfeedbackwethankAaronChalfin,OeindrilaDube,ZubinJelveh,MaxKapustin,JohnRappaport,KyleRozema,andMaxSchanzenbach.Findings,opinionsandanyerrorsherearethoseoftheauthorsaloneanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheChicagoPoliceDepartment.TheviewsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsoftheNationalBureauofEconomicResearch.
NBERworkingpapersarecirculatedfordiscussionandcommentpurposes.Theyhavenotbeenpeer-reviewedorbeensubjecttothereviewbytheNBERBoardofDirectorsthataccompaniesofficialNBERpublications.
?2024byGregStoddard,DylanJ.Fitzpatrick,andJensLudwig.Allrightsreserved.Shortsectionsoftext,nottoex
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