5月PMI数据点评：有效需求不足下的超预期回调.pptx

证券研究报告供需双双走弱，制造业PMI超预期回落1假期需求释放，非制造业平稳增长2数据波动凸显政策发力必要3请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远

证券研究报告中国5月制造业PMI指数49.5，预期50.4，前值50.4。中国5月非制造业PMI指数51.1，预期51.5，前值51.2。数据来源：iFinD，太平洋证券研究院项目 较前值 2024/5 2024/4 2024/3 2024/2 2024/1 2023/12 2023/11 2023/10 2023/9 2023/8 2023/7 2023/6 2023/5制造业PMI-0.949.550.849.650.450.849.149.249.049.449.550.949.546.847.550.249.749.349.048.849.648.3生产新订单新出口订单进口原材料库存从业人员供应商配送时间-2.152.952.249.851.350.250.749.452.751.950.250.3-1.551.153.051.350.449.0 49.048.750.550.249.548.6-2.348.350.646.347.245.846.446.347.846.746.346.846.447.2-1.346.848.146.447.447.548.848.046.747.647.348.048.147.648.947.048.6-0.347.848.1 48.147.748.248.548.448.247.447.60.148.148.048.147.647.948.050.248.148.048.148.248.4-0.350.149.350.450.650.850.3 50.350.850.751.650.550.450.5采购量主要原材料购进价格出厂价格产成品库存在手订单生产经营活动预期-1.250.554.052.749.249.049.6 49.850.549.548.949.02.956.950.5 50.1 50.451.550.752.659.453.556.552.448.645.043.940.841.61.350.449.147.448.147.947.047.7 48.2 47.752.0-0.846.547.348.949.447.848.248.546.747.246.346.148.9-0.345.345.647.643.544.344.544.444.245.345.945.4 45.246.1-0.954.355.251.255.653.054.254.055.955.855.655.555.655.153.454.1非制造业PMI-0.151.154.451.450.750.450.250.651.751.051.553.254.558.253.8建筑业服务业-1.956.3 56.253.553.950.156.955.053.556.253.851.255.70.250.550.352.451.049.3 49.350.150.950.551.552.8请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远

证券研究报告01 供需双双走弱，制造业PMI超预期回落5月制造业PMI为49.5，较上月下降0.9个百分点（降幅为2013年以来的最大值），重回临界水平以下且低于市场一致预期。主要分项中生产指数、新订单指数以及原材料库存指数均对指数的回调形成拖累，其中权重较大的生产与需求边际走弱尤为明显。如何理解本月制造业PMI超预期的回调？一方面有此前内需偏弱、回升动能不足的延续性影响，另一方面，前期较快反弹带来的高基数扰动、小长假造成纳入统计工作日边际减少、外需拉动减弱可能也导致数据的波动。制造业PMI制造业PMI分项54535251504948474645442022/062022/072022/082022/092022/102022/112022/122023/012023/022023/032023/042023/052023/062023/072023/082023/092023/102023/112023/122024/012024/022024/032024/042024/05PMI5351494745生产新订单原材料库存供货商配送时间从业人员2024-05 2024-04数据来源：Wind，太平洋证券研究院数据来源：Wind，太平洋证券研究院请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分守正出奇宁静致远

证券研究报告01 供需双双走弱，制造业PMI超预期回落，内外需求均偏弱运行。市场有效需求不足，5月新订单指数及相关分项均边际下行，外需回落更为明显。第一，本月新订单指数为49.6，重