世界银行-乌拉圭气候冲击的宏观经济影响（英）-2024.3-41页.pdf

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uTheMacroeconomicImpact

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iofClimateShocksinUruguay

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FernandoGiuliano

DanielNavia

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Macroeconomics,TradeandInvestmentGlobalPractice

March2024

PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10740

Abstract

Uruguayisaneconomythatisvulnerabletoprecipita-shocksthatcansimultaneouslyaffectaneconomy,incor-

tionpatterns,asevidencedduringthecountry’shistoricporatingexogenousmacroeconomicshocksintohistorical

2022/23drought.Yet,anddespiteitsrichmacroeconomicclimateshocksexacerbatesvolatilityandincreasespoten-

andclimatedataenvironment,thecountrydoesnothaveatiallosses.Grossdomesticproductcanfallby2.3percent

consistentmacroeconomicmodeltoaddresstheaggregateunderacombinednegativeclimateandmacroeconomic

impactofclimateshocks,letalonetheexpectedadditionalshockofthetypewitnessedonceeverysixyearsonaverage,

impactfromclimatechange.Thispaperintendstofillthisand4.1percentunderaonce-in-40-yearscombinednega-

gapbyintegratingclimateshocksintotheWorldBank’stiveshock.Climatechangecompoundstheseeffectsgoing

Macro-FiscalModel,its