影响我国国际收支经常账户顺差的因素分析.docx

影响我国国际收支经常账户顺差的因素分析

摘要：近十年来，中国的经常账户一直保持着盈余状态，进而导致中国国际收支不平衡，严重影响中国经济，引起了许多经济分析家和决策者的关注，成为了研究的焦点。基于以上背景和中国2008年至2018年的经常收支数据，本文分析了这种现象的原因，并说明了各因素对经常收支赤字的影响。通过一系列数据分析，首先计算了商品、服务、收益、转移账户四个科目的顺差收支对每年经常收支黑字的贡献率。另外，从各科目的贡献率影响经常收支黑字的要素有贸易收支的差额、外国人的直接投资、二次收入三个。理论研究表明，商品账户黑字是中国经常账户黑字的主要动力，服务账户的赤字是导致中国经常账户黑字减少的主要途径，收益账户的赤字是形成中国经常账户黑字减少的次要原因，账户转移是中国经常账户黑字减少的弱小原因。对经常账户盈余的影响比较弱。最后，本文给出了相关的对策和建议。

关键词：经常账户顺差，影响因素，贸易收支差额

AnanalysisofthefactorsaffectingthecurrentaccountsurplusofChinasbalanceofpayments

Abstract：Inthepastdecade,Chinascurrentaccounthasmaintainedasurplusstate,whichhasledtotheimbalanceofChinasbalanceofpaymentsandseriouslyaffectedChinaseconomy.Ithasattractedtheattentionofmanyeconomicanalystsandpolicymakersandbecomethefocusofresearch.BasedontheabovebackgroundandChinascurrentbalancedatafrom2008to2018,thispaperanalyzesthecausesofthisphenomenonandexplainstheimpactofvariousfactorsonthecurrentbalancedeficit.Throughaseriesofdataanalysis,thecontributionrateofsurplusbalanceofgoods,services,incomeandtransferaccounttotheblackwordsofcurrentaccountiscalculated.Inaddition,thefactorsthatinfluencetheblackprintofcurrentbalancefromthecontributionrateofeachsubjectincludethebalanceoftradebalance,foreigndirectinvestmentandsecondaryincome.TheoreticalresearchshowsthattheblackwordsincommodityaccountarethemaindrivingforceoftheblackwordsinChinascurrentaccount,thedeficitinserviceaccountisthemainwaytoreducetheblackwordsinChinascurrentaccount,thedeficitinincomeaccountisthesecondaryreasontoformtheblackwordsinChinascurrentaccount,andtheaccounttransferisthesecondaryreasontoreducetheblackwordsinChinascurrentaccount.Theimpactoncurrentaccountsurplusisrelativelyweak.Finally,thispaperputsforwardtherelevantcountermeasuresandsuggestions.

Keywords：Currentaccountsurplus,influe