衰退交易下有色金属行业配置策略：假如美国真的衰退，黄金的优势有多大.docxVIP

NBER W?M

NBERRfFNR

NBERH?AR

1948-11

1949-10

11

1949-01

1949-06

4

1953-07

1954-05

10

1953-06

1954-03

-1

2

1957-08

1958-04

1957-09

1958-03

1960-04

1961-02

10

1696-12

1970-11

11

1969-09

1970-03

-3

1973-11

1975-03

16

1974-06

1975-03

6

0

1980-01

1980-07

1980-03

1980-09

2

-2

1981-07

1982-11

16

1981-09

1982-03

2

1990-07

1991-03

1990-09

1991-03

2

0

2001-03

2001-11

2007-12

2009-06

18

2008-06

2009-06

5

0

2020-02

2020-04

2

2019-12

2022-06

-2

-2

—10

-15

1 1960 1965 1970

1980 19B5 1990 1995

2000 2005

2015 2020 2025

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20%

1973

1980

1981

1990

2001

2007

2020

DMKW*(?ü

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-6%

4%

8%

9%

17%

4%

71%

7%

20%

23%

16%

7%

18%

57%

18%

100%

-6%

0%

24%

23%

ll%

50%

-5%

14%

5%

50%

26%

20%

75%

15%

14%

75%

5%

12%

1%

8%

100%

26%

-6%

25%

-8%

ll%

16%

-13%

-4%

1%

-4%

43%

14%

5%

7%

-1%

15%

12%

7%

71%

-1%

0%

2%

1%

1%

75%

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