定量解读市场情绪、估值及资金面情况-240930-国联证券.pdfVIP

图：全A个股PB估值分布情况

资料来源：Wind，国联证券研究所

图：市净率分位数从2024年8月的1.1%反弹至9月的17.4%图：历史数据表明，市净率分位数较低时，后续反弹持续

性较强

市净率未来N个月涨跌幅

分位数1个月2个月3个月4个月5个月6个月

(0%,10%]2.6%5.0%6.9%11.0%12.6%13.3%

(10%,20%]4.1%6.0%7.3%8.4%8.4%10.8%

(20%,30%]1.9%3.3%4.9%5.7%6.2%7.8%

(30%,40%]-1.4%-1.4%-1.9%-0.9%2.1%3.0%

(40%,50%]-0.3%-0.6%-1.3%-0.4%1.8%5.8%

(50%,60%]1.6%2.7%2.1%4.2%4.8%5.3%

(60%,70%]-0.1%-0.5%0.2%-0.6%-0.4%-1.0%

(70%,80%]0.5%1.2%1.4%-1.5%-1.0%-0.6%

(80%,90%]-0.4%1.8%4.5%6.0%1.2%-4.6%