高盛-中国白酒业-茅台价格疲弱 China Spirits Tracker Moutai wholesale prices trending weaker on shipments for the festival 09112024.docx

11September2024|2:49AMHKT

ChinaSpiritsTracker:Moutaiwholesalepricestrendingweakeronshipmentsforthefestival

Inthepastweek,originalcaseFeitianMoutai’swholesaleprice/bottledecreasedbyRmb110fromRmb2,660toRmb2,550.UnpackedFeitianMoutai’swholesale

LeafLiu

+852-3966-4169|leaf.liu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

price/bottleremained?attishatRmb2,365.PackedMoutai’swholesaleprice

HongdaZhong

+852-2978-2300|

furtherdeclinedtowardstheMid-AutumnFestivalunderexpeditedshipments.

hongda.zhong@

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

CommonWuliangye’swholesaleprice/bottleremained?attishatRmb960per

ChristinaLiu

“DailySpiritsPrices”,andincreasedbyRmb5fromRmb915toRmb920per

+852-2978-6983|christina.liu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

“SpiritsPriceReferences”(regionaldifference).Guojiao1573’swholesale

JuliaMu

price/bottleremained?attishatRmb870.WealsoupdatedMonthlywholesale

+852-2978-1219|julia.mu@GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

pricesofc.40keySKUsacrossspiritsbrandsinthistracker.

ValerieZhou

+852-2978-0820|valerie.zhou@

Wrappingup2Q24results,wesawsuperpremiumplayers

GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.

(Moutai/Wuliangye/Laojiao)deliveredsolidresultsanddivergingtrendsamong

upper-mid-endplayers.Weobservedslowermarginsonmixshift,aweakening

trendincustomeradvancesfornonhigh-endplayersandarelativelyweaker

cash?owtrendforourcoverage.Channel?nancing(notesreceivable)startedto

pickuprapidlywithgenerallyweakeningcustomeradvancesfortheupper-mid-end

at2Q-end,suggestingamorecautiousviewfromchannels.High-endbrandsare

alsomakingmoreeffortstopushSKUspositionedattheRmb500~700pricing

range.

Perourchannelchecks,prepaymentandretailsalesmomentumaretrendingweakervs.2023towardstheMid-AutumnFestivalduetoatoughcompof

banquetdemandandreduceddemandstimulatedbyhome-comingactivitiesbecauseofstand-aloneMid-AutumnFestival/Nat