高盛-中国消费跟踪 China Consumer Pulse check 2Q24 topline softer with guidance cut; selective positive surprise from margins09112024.docx

10September2024|9:22PMHKT

ChinaConsumer

Pulsecheck:2Q24toplinesofterwithguidancecut;selectivepositivesurprisefrommargins

Theoverallconsumersectorsawasequentiallyweakertrendin2Q24,aswe

highlightedinourpriorpulsecheck.Wesawtoplinemiss/salesguidancecutacrosstheboard,thoughperformancedivergedwithinthesamecategories

withafewnamesincludingAnta,Roborock,Miniso,PopMart,Giant,Proya,UPC,Haitian,GambolandAnkerabletodeliveridiosyncraticoutperformance.The

positivesurprisemainlycamefromthemarginsidethankstocostcontrol

effortsandfavorablerawmaterialprices.Mosttrendsweobservedin1Qhave

continuedinto2Q:1)onlineledthegrowth,whilebringingASP/marginpressuretosomecategories(smallkitchenappliances,cosmetics);2)overseasabrightspotforhomedurables,IPconceptretailers,apparelfootwearOEMs,petfood,3)

consumersremainvalue-focusedandde?ationpressurepersists;yetinterest-basedconsumption(PopMart,Miniso,pets)andoutdoorrelatedcategories

(running/outdoorbrandslikeASICS,Descente,Kolon,andbeverages)stillseesolid

spendingwillingness;4)localbrandsingeneraloutperformedMNCbrands

consideringthepricepointsandproductcycles.Wealsonotede-consolidationtrendsinrestaurant,sportswear,cosmetics,snacks,dairyandbeer.

_Lookinginto2H24,whilethebasewillbecomeeasierfrom4Q,weseeloweredexpectationswithsoftmacrodataandslowdemandimprovement

_

quarter-to-date(thoughsomecompaniesnotedsequentialimprovementinAug

withalowerbase),vs.previouslyexpectingasequentialgrowthaccelerationin2H.Keyareastowatchforthesequentialconsumptiontrendswillbe:theimpactfrom

thehomeappliancetrade-inpolicywithinitialdatashowingsomepositivetrend,andNationalDayholiday/Mid-Autumnfestivalspending.Meanwhile,fortheoverseas

driver,theUSelectionwillbeaswingfactorandinvestorsentimentcould