二氧化碳利用能否推动增加碳捕获？（英文版）.docx

Touseornotto

use?

CO2utilisationasacarboncaptureenabler

WoodMackenzieCCUSresearchteamAugust2024

LevelisedcostofefuelsvstraditionalfuelsAnnouncedcarboncaptureutilisation(Mtpa)Touseornottouse:CO2utilisationas

Levelisedcostofefuelsvstraditionalfuels

Announcedcarbon

capture

utilisation(Mtpa)

ExecutiveSummary

CO2utilisationcouldbolstercarboncaptureeconomicsbutrepresents5%ofglobalannouncedcapturecapacity.Highcosts,insufficientsubsidies,andunsubstantialmarketsforgreen

premiumsarelimitingappetiteforutilisationgrowth.

e-Hydrocarbonsareuncompetitivetodayandcost3xvsincumbenttechnologywhenusinggreenH2,whichcomprises80%ofcostofproduction.Subsidiestodayareinsufficienttoovercomethesecosts.

CO2mineralisationtohigh-puritylimestoneiscompetitivewithtraditionalmanufacturing,showing

15%+returnsiftechnologyisscaledeconomically,butmarketsizeislimitedto40Mtpa.Aggregatescouldbea500+Mtpamarket,butconversiontoaggregatesistooexpensivetodaytobecompetitive.

Policysupportingdemandforutilisationproductsisnotstrongenough.Withoutmarketsfortheseproducts,utilisationeconomicswillcontinuetobedisadvantaged.

TaxincentivesliketheUS45QandCanadianInvestmentTaxCreditsupportutilisationbutare

limitedinscopeandprovideinsufficientrevenuetojustifyprojects.OnlytheEUhasalegislatedCO2utilisationmandate,whichisconstrainedtoe-fueluseinaviation.

Declinesinfeedstockandtechnology

Declinesinfeedstockandtechnologycostsanddevelopmentofstrongpolicyincentivesarecrucialforutilisationtobecomealegitimate,widespreadenablerofcarboncapturedeployment.

capacitygoingtovsstorage

Utilisation

-

withEUpenalties,2030

US$/tonnejet

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

TraditionalFuelProductionCost

ETS

ReFuelEUPenalties

GreenH?Cost

BiogenicCO?Cost

Othere-Fuel

ProductionC