中国半湿润流域WRF-Hydro模型参数敏感性分析.pdfVIP

第51卷第5期河海大学学报(自然科学版)Vol.51No.5

2023年9月JournalofHohaiUniversity(NaturalSciences)Sep.2023

DOI:10.3876/j.issn.10001980.2023.05.001

中国半湿润流域WRF鄄Hydro模型参数敏感性分析

李致家,龚俊超,孙明坤

(河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京摇210098)

摘要:为提高WRF鄄Hydro模型在中国半湿润流域的模拟预报精度,以半湿润的陈河流域为研究对

象,选取了WRF鄄Hydro模型中土层厚度乘子、水箱模型指数、土层渗透系数、地表截留深乘子、地表

糙率乘子和河道糙率乘子6个参数进行敏感性分析。通过数据模拟这6个参数在合理取值范围内

的不同取值对洪水模拟及各评价指标的影响,定性分析了各参数的敏感性,并采用修正的Morris筛

选法定量判断各参数的敏感性。结果表明:土层厚度乘子、土层渗透系数及河道曼宁糙率非常敏

感,根据目标函数与典型洪水分析,建议分别在0.1~1.0、0.0~1.0、0.5~1.5内取值。

关键词:WRF鄄Hydro模型;参数敏感性;半湿润流域;修正的Morris筛选法

中图分类号:P338摇摇摇文献标志码:A摇摇摇文章编号:10001980(2023)05000108

ParametricsensitivityanalysisofWRF鄄Hydromodelinasemi鄄humidwatershedofChina

LIZhijia,GONGJunchao,SUNMingkun

(CollegeofHydrologyandWaterResources,HohaiUniversity,Nanjing210098,China)

Abstract:ToimprovethesimulationaccuracyintheChinesesemi鄄humidwatershed,thisstudytooktheChenheCatchmentinthe

semi鄄humidareaasthestudyareaandselected6parametersincludingZSOILFAC,GWEXP,REFKDT,RETDEPRTFAC,

OVROUGHRTFACandMANNFACforthesensitivityanalysisofWRF鄄Hydromodelparameters.Thesensitivityoftheseparameters

wasqualitativelyanalyzedbystudyingtheinfluenceofdifferentparametervalueinthereasonablerangeonthefloodsimulationandeach

evaluationindex,andthemodifiedMorrisscreeningmethodwasusedtoquantitativelydeterminethesensitivityofeachparameter.The

resultsshowthatZSOILFAC,REFKDTandMANNFACareverysensitive,anditissuggestedtotakethevaluewithin0.1to1.0,0郾0

to1郾0and0郾5to1郾5respectively.

Keywords:WRF鄄Hydromodel;parametricsensitivity;semi鄄humidwatershed;modifiedMorrisscreeningmethod