管理统计学(西安交通大学-王建琼、刁明碧).pptVIP

管理统计学

StatisticsInManagement;

;第1章概率论

;;;;;;;;?;补集的文氏图;;;;;;;交集的文氏图;P(A2andB2);;并集的文氏图;P(A1andB1);;条件概率〔续〕;现实中的条件概率

Prob(WingivenAheadathalftime)

HigherthanProb(Win)evaluatedbeforethegamebegan

Prob(SucceedgivenGoodresultsintestmarket)

HigherthanProb(Succeed)evaluatedbeforemarketingstudy

Prob(GetjobgivenPoorinterview)

LowerthanProb(GetjobgivenGoodinterview)

Prob(HaveAIDSgivenTestpositive)

HigherthanProb(HaveAIDS)forthepopulation-at-large;Black;;;;;离散事件实例;离散事件的概率分布;离散随机变量的数字特征;;二项分布的性质〔1〕;二项分布的性质〔2〕;二项分布函数(Function);;泊松分布

区间;;;超几何分布试验;;超几何分布的数字特征;随机变量的协方差(Covariance);;;;;第2章概率分布;;;TheNormalDistribution

正态分布;;;;;;;0;;;;;;ExponentialDistributions

指数分布;;EstimationofParameter

参数估计;SamplingDistributions

抽样分布;Populationsize,N=4

Randomvariable,X,

isAgeofindividuals

ValuesofX:18,20,22,24

measuredinyears;;16Samples;;抽样分布的描述;;PopulationMeanEqualto

SamplingMean

TheStandardError(standarddeviation)oftheSamplingdistributionisLessthanPopulationStandardDeviation

Formula(samplingwithreplacement):;Unbiasedness〔无偏性〕

Meanofsamplingdistributionequalspopulationmean

Efficiency〔有效性〕

Samplemeancomesclosertopopulationmeanthananyotherunbiasedestimator

Consistency〔一致性〕

Assamplesizeincreases,variationofsamplemeanfrompopulationmeandecreases;?;?;?;n=16

??X=2.5;;n=30

??X=1.8;抽样分布的应用;Categoricalvariable(e.g.,gender)分类变量

%populationhavingacharacteristic

Iftwooutcomes,binomialdistribution

Possessordon’tpossesscharacteristic

Sampleproportion(ps);Approximatedbynormaldistribution

np?5

n?1-p)??5

Mean

Standarderror

;StandardizingSamplingDistributionofProportion

标准化比例的抽样分布;;ModifyStandardErrorifSampleSize(n)is

LargeRelativetoPopulationSize(N)

n.05N(orn/N.05)

UseFinitePopulationCorrectionFactor (fpc)〔校正因子〕

Standarderrorsifn/N.05:;;第3章统计概