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Note:ThefollowingisaredactedversionoftheoriginalreportpublishedFebruary25,2024[52pages].
EQUITY RESEARCH|25February2025|5:21AMCET
Carbonomics
Tarifs,deglobalizationandthecostofdecarbonization
OurupdatedCarbonomicscostcurveconsiders100diferentapplicationsfordecarbonizationtechacrosskeyemittingsectors,
reflectingtechnologicalinnovationandagrowingpushforlocalsupplychainsandtarifs.Ourfourkeyconclusions:
Innovationdelivers,butistwo-speedthisyear:Technologicalinnovationcontinuestolowerthedecarbonizationcostcurveas
thelowerhalfofthecostcurvemovesdownonaverageby7%yoy.However,more-expensivetechnologiesinhard-to-abate
sectorsarebecomingmoreexpensive.ThisisourifthCarbonomicscostcurve,andtechnologicalinnovationhasdelivereda
cumulative45%declineforthelower50%ofthecostcurvesince2019.
Batteries,solarandbiofuelsdrivedecarbonizationcostsdown;decarbonizingindustry
remainsmostchallenging:Batteriesseethemostcostimprovement,loweringthecostof
decarbonizingpassengertransportandthecostofsolarpairedwithbatterystorageby30%+.
Standalonesolarpowergenerationcostshavefallen12%yoy,whilebiofuelshavebecome40%
cheaper.Conversely,weseelittleprogressinindustry,mostlyonalackofprogresswith
hydrogen-dependenttechnologies.
Deglobalizationcouldadd30%todecarbonization
costs:Somecleantechnologiesaremanufacturedlocally
(bio-energy,grids,electrolysers),butothershavea
dominant,global,low-costsupplier(solar,batteries)that
continuestogaincostcompetitiveness,raisingquestions
overthebeneitsoflocalmanufacturingvs.imports.We
flexourCarbonomicscostcurve,measuringthecostof
decarbonizationbasedonthelowest-costglobal
supplier,vs.loca
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