smsl 2014统计学系pizza比萨.pdfVIP

SMSL/2014

Apizzadeliverycompanyisconsideringoneofthefollowinomarketingstrategies:

(A)tosellallpizzasatadiscountedpriceof1dollareach;

(B)topledgethatallpizzascanbedeliveredwithin1hourandofferadiscountforanylatedelivery,

sothateachpizzawillbesoldatapriceof

2dollarsif≤1;and2−dollarsif1,

whereisthetime(inhours)takentodeliverthepizza.

Itisknownthatthedeliverytimeiponentiallydistributedwithrate0,sothathasthe

densityfunction

(|)={−0

0≤0

Inordertoassistintheirdecision-making,thecompanywillarrangeatrialdeliveryandrecordthe

requireddeliverytimetobehours.Wecanassumethatisalsoexponentiallydistributedwith

thesamerate.

(a)Showthatifisthetruerateofdeliverytime,thentheexpectedloss(indollarsperpizza)

incurredtothecompanyisgivenby



()=−1ifstrategy(A)isadopted,



(−)



()=−21−ifstrategy(B)isadopted.

1+

(b)Letdenoteadecisionrulebasedon,sothat()∈{}.Showthattheriskfunction

associatedwithisgivenby

()=(2−−1)(()=)−1

1+

1

(c)Identifyaminimaxruleforthecompanyanditscorrespondingumrisk.

(d)Let∗∈(0304)hesolutionto