(简体)股票投资与股票价格行为分析.docVIP

股票投资与股票价格行为分析

苏平贵

股票投资与股票价格行为分析

摘要：本文通过剖析资本资产定价模型CAPM的假设前提和逻辑推理过程，发觉该模型得出的结论是在用它所定义的股票投资差价收益率R=[（Pt+1-Pt）]/Pt的波动性这一自变量，来说明投资者所获得的股票投资平均差价收益率这一因变量，存在着就股价论股价和用自己说明自己的逻辑缺陷，而没有深化分析引起股价波动背后的深层缘由。针对CAPM的局限性，本文首次提出了一个基于股票内在价值、市盈率、预期、不确定性及供求关系的股票价格行为动态分析模型。本文认为，引起股票市场价格变动的主要缘由是体现股票内在价值变动的每股收益的变动，二者存在着亲密的内在联系，联系二者的途径是市盈率指标；其它因素是通过影响每股收益和股票内在价值，最终对市场价格产生影响作用的；股票的市场价格是在投资者对公司将来每股收益和股票内在价值的不断预期、对市盈率的不断推断及矫正的基础上，在由此导致的投资决策及供求力气的作用下，围绕大多数资者普遍认可的合理市盈率而上下波动的。

关键词：内在价格；市盈率；预期；不确定性；股票价格行为

OntheStockInvestmentandStockPriceBihavior

SuPinggui

DongbeiUniversityofFinaceandEconomics

ByanalyzingthepremiseandlogicalreasoningofCapictalAssetPricingModel(CAPM),thepaperdetectsadefaultthatthemodelofisusingtheindependentvaribale--thevolitilityofthereturnfromstockpricevariationR=[（Pt+1-Pt）]/Pttoexplaindependentvaribale--themeansreturntheinvestorobtainedfromstockpricevariation,thereexistsanlogicaldefectinCAPMthatisitexplainsthestockpricevariationbyitself.BedirectedattheshortcomingsofCAPM,thepaperputforwardadynamicmodelthatisbasedontheinternalvalueofstock,theratioofprice-earnings,theexpectationofinvestors,theuncertaintyandthesupply-demandlaws.Thepaperarguesethatthemainreasonthatcausethestockpricetovaryisthevariationofearningspersharethatreflectsthevariationoftheinternalvalueofstock,andallotherfactorsinfluencethevariationofstockpricebyinfluencingthevariationofearningspershare.Thereisancloserelationbetweenand,thatis,andthewaytorelatethetwovariablesisratioofprice-earnings.Thepaperalsodiscussestherelationshipbetweenthestockpricebehaviorandtheinvestors’expectationofearningspershare,andtheinvestors’judgmentofthedifferencebetweentheactualandtheirheldratiosofprice-earnings.Attheend,thepaperconcludethatthestockpricefluctuatearoundallin