模拟模型中的决策建模.pptxVIP

ModellingHumanDecision-MakinginSimulationModelsofConflictJamesMoffat(SeniorFellow,Dstl,UK)

AbstractNEC:NetworkEnabledCapability(DigitisationoftheBattlespace)Core:anunderstandingofhowbetterinformationandabetterapproachtoCommandandControlleadtobothbetterdecisionsandimprovedexecutionoroperations.0102

Researchonthissubject:AconceptualunderstandingofandimprovedapproachestoC2QuantifiedOperationalAnalysis(OA)models

AnewapproachtotheRepresentationofC2,basedontheunderstandingfromComplexityTheory.DeliberateandRapidPlanningprocessesAnewgenerationofsimulationmodelsValidationofthemodelswithexperimentaldataAssesstheabilitytounderstandandmodelnetwork-centricapproachestoC2

Cybernetics:thescienceofcontrolandcommunicationintheanimalandinthemachinevarietyAshby’sLawofRequisiteVariety:thevarietyofthecontrollermustbalancethevarietyofthesystem

TheIndustrialAgeTheInformationAgeNeedtoconstructarepresentationofthehumancommandanddecision-makingprocesswhichgivesrisetohighvarietyDeliberatePlanningRapidPlanning

RPDPRapidPlanning:reactfasttolocalcircumstances,constrainedbymorestrategicDeliberatePlanninginordertoproducetherequisitevarietyofcommandDeliberatePlanning:representsdecision-makingbasedonarationalchoiceamongalternatives.

ThehighestmaturitylevelfortheemployedforceCorrespondstotheIndustrialAgeC2

BuildingthesimulationmodelsetRP,afeedbackprocessincyberneticterms,basedonthepsychologicalconstructofnaturalisticdecision-making.DP,afeedforwardprocessincyberneticterms,inwhichtheemphasisisontheexplictgeneration,andsubsequentevaluation,ofalternativecoursesofaction.(mathematicalalgorithmstoimplementthesetwoapprochestohumandecision-makingaredescribedinMoffat2002)

AdetailedcomparisionaboutcasualtiessufferedmadebetweenC