The ARLCNI 2035 Scenarios：AI-Influenced Futures in the Research Environmen英文调查报告.docxVIP

TheARL/CNI2035Scenarios

AI-InfluencedFuturesintheResearchEnvironment

May2024

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TheARL/CNI2035Scenarios:AI-InfluencedFuturesintheResearchEnvironment

May2024

AssociationofResearchLibraries(ARL)

CoalitionforNetworkedInformation(CNI)

StratusInc.

ThisworkislicensedunderaCreativeCommonsAttribution4.0InternationalLicense.

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SuggestedCitation

TheARL/CNI2035Scenarios:AI-InfluencedFuturesintheResearchEnvironment.

Washington,DC,andWestChester,PA:AssociationofResearchLibraries,CoalitionforNetworkedInformation,andStratusInc.,May2024.

/10.29242/report.aiscenarios2024.

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TableofContents

Acknowledgments 4

Introduction 6

Scenario1:DemocratizingAI 12

CurrentDriversandTrendsSignalingthePotentialofthisScenario 14

SomeStrategicQuestionsfortheARLandCNICommunitiestoConsider 14

Alex’sExperienceinThisScenario 15

Scenario2:TechnocraticAI 17

CurrentDriversandTrendsSignalingthePotentialofthisScenario 19

SomeStrategicQuestionsfortheARLandCNICommunitiestoConsider 20

Alex’sExperienceinThisScenario 20

Scenario3:DivisiveAI 22

CurrentDriversandTrendsSignalingthePotentialofthisScenario 24

SomeStrategicQuestionsfortheARLandCNICommunitiestoConsider 24

Alex’sExperienceinThisScenario 24

Scenario4:AutonomousAI 27

CurrentDriversandTrendsSignalingthePotentialofthisScenario 29

SomeStrategicQuestionsfortheARLandCNICommunitiestoConsider 29

Alex’sExperienceinThisScenario 29

End-StateTable 32

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Acknowledgments

Thisdocumentreflectsthecollectivecontributionsofavarietyofpeoplefromthe

membershipoftheAssociationofResearchLibraries(ARL)andtheCoalitionfor

NetworkedInformation(CNI)andbeyond.Thescenariodevelopmentprocesswas

implementedbyARLandCNIstaffworkingwithSusanStickley(StratusInc.).CynthiaHudsonVitale